Top Line

LGBTQ Americans are expected to increasingly form a bigger part of the voting bloc in the coming years, a new report good From the Human Rights Campaign and the Bowling Green State University projects – about 20% of eligible voters by 2040 – a trend that can have a measurable impact on battlefield voting outcomes.

Key Facts

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Analysis based on US census data and national population estimateAn estimated 14.3% of the voteable population (adults 18 years of age and older) will identify as LGBTQ by 2030, and 17.8% are projected to identify as LGBTQ by 2040.

This is up from the roughly 10.8% of voteable adults who identified as LGBTQ in the 2020 general election, and 11.3% in the midterm elections this year.

the researchers characterized total growth The LGBTQ population is due to the fact that more young Americans are identifying as LGBTQ—thanks to the fact that LGBTQ people are more comfortable and accepting and supporting policies such as same-sex marriage than older generations—and because younger generations are increasingly making one of large part of the total population.

LGBTQ Americans are also particularly likely to vote, the analysis argues, given that LGBTQ voters have voted a record 7% Number of voters in 2020 despite making only 5.6% of American adults overall.

Given that LGBTQ Americans usually Party For candidates who support Democratic-leaning policies such as same-sex marriage and reproductive rights, analysis suggests the increasing share of LGBTQ voters may have a measurable effect on election results, the share of eligible voters in key battleground states. The detection will increase significantly over time. to the general electorate.

Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada and Texas, which already have higher-than-average LGBTQ populations, are also projected to have higher shares of LGBTQ voters by 2040, which is 17.8% of Americans overall, the analysis projects and compares all five. in more. States are also expected to identify as LGBTQ by 2030 (between 11.6% and 13.5% now) of more than 15% of their voteable population.

important quotes

"The impact of these trends could be enormous," the HRC said in its report of the study's findings. "In the coming years, growing LGBTQ+ voters will fundamentally change the prospects of candidates, ballot questions, and other items placed before voters."

Adverse

While the study finds that some states will exceed the national average, other battleground states are poised to continue that trend, saying that an already low proportion of LGBTQ Americans compared to the national average. Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are expected to have LGBTQ populations of 12% and 13.2% of voters by 2030 (Michigan has the lowest and Pennsylvania the highest), and those states are the states overall by 2040. The LGBTQ population is estimated to be smaller than in the US. States' LGBTQ voter shares will still grow from where they are now, however: in Florida, for example, LGBTQ adults are expected to grow from 10.5% of voteable adults. 16.3% this year in 2040.

main background

An increasing share of LGBTQ voters as more Republican-led states have enacted policies targeting LGBTQ Americans, including battleground states tracked in HRC's analysis. For example, Florida has drawn widespread criticism for its legislation known as the "Don't Say Gay" policy, which prohibits discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity in schools, and abandoned gender-affirming care from Medicaid and were taken To prevent minors from obtaining it. Texas, where the study found 19.9% ​​of adults will identify as LGBTQ by 2040, has drawn widespread condemnation for its policy screening parents of children who have received gender-affirming care for child abuse. and the State Government has also taken steps such as Limited Transgender athletes in school sports. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) also signed several bills into law this year that target LGBTQ Americans, allowed to taxpayer-funded adoption and foster care agencies to discriminate against same-sex families and Limited Gender-affirming care and transgender participation school games,

Equality Voters: Projected Growth of the LGBTQ+ Voting Block in the Coming Years (Human Rights Campaign)

LGBT identities in the US increased by 7.1% (Gallup)