On Monday, Japanese investment bank Nomura became the latest bank Forecast Just days after the Federal Reserve announced a massive hike in interest rates in an effort to control the surprisingly high inflation numbers – the impending recession in the US economy sometime later this year – in the likes of Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley to be involved.
According to multiple outletsEconomists at Nomura warned that a “mild recession” around the end of 2022 was now more “likely” because of the Fed’s recent moves.
Economists at Nomura said inflation is likely to “remain advanced” throughout 2022 and forecast the US economy is likely to contract by 1% next year, compared to earlier predictions of 1.3% growth.
On Friday, Deutsche Bank—the first bank to forecast an upcoming recession at the end of 2023—Update your forecast Noting that it now expects “an earlier and somewhat more severe recession”, forecasting a 3.1% contraction of GDP in the third quarter of 2023.
Two days before the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman appeared to be Slightly more optimistic, placing the chances of a bearishness at “50-50”, adding that a “deep or prolonged recession” was unlikely.
In a recent note, Moody’s Analytics chief economist warned that recession risks were “uncomfortably high” and “escalating”, adding that avoiding such a situation would require “very clever policymaking and little luck from the Fed”. ” would be required.
in a note Published in AprilEconomists at Goldman Sachs had forecast a 35% chance of a recession over the next 24 months, but that meant risks were mounting after the Fed’s recent rate hike.