Making accurate financial predictions is difficult.
it was clear baron’s 2021 prediction challenge. Our winner received a score of 11 in the contest, with 14 multiple choice questions and two questions about the best and worst stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The maximum possible score was 17. The Dow’s biggest winner and loser had two points each, and we dismissed a question about Covid because none of the three possible scenarios we presented had actually ended. The average score was 3.74, and I got a score of four.
We got over 5,000 entries. The winning score in the previous year (with the same number of questions) was 15, which is one of the best ever. In 20 years of competition, no one has achieved perfection.
We usually profile the winner, but this year’s top scorer did not respond to our email. If he is successful, the winner will get two years of membership baron’s and with lunch a baron’s Winner’s Choice staffers in Manhattan once the pandemic subsides.
The hardest question was predicting the best Dow stock for 2021 — it was Home Depot — which got less than 1% correct. Worst prediction, under 2%, Walt Disney. And less than 5% of respondents estimated the index would return more than 20% (including dividends). In fact, the Dow returned just under 21%.
Here are the correct answers—and the percentage of respondents who answered each question correctly.
1. What will the Dow Jones Industrial Average return in 2021 including dividend?
d. above 20%
2. What will be the biggest financial surprise of the year?
a. S&P 500 Index Gains Another 15%,
c. Oil prices up, crude finishing above $60 a barrel (West Texas Intermediate crude is now around $45).
3. Which S&P 500 Sector Will Perform Best in 2021?
4. Where Will Bitcoin End? It is now about $23,000.
d. above $30,000
5. Which FAANG stock will perform best in 2021?
6. Which Hot 2020 IPO will perform worst in 2021?
B Palantir Technologies
7. Which stock loser from 2020 will perform best in 2021?
b exxon mobil
8. In which direction will the pandemic go in America?
None of the answers given by us were correct, so we left this question.
9. What will happen in Washington, DC?
e. none of the above
10. What will be the hottest IPO of 2021 (measured by performance by IPO price)?
A Coinbase (Bitcoin dealer)
11. Name the top stock in Dow Jones Industrial Average (including dividend) in 2021. Worth two points.
12. Name the worst stock in Dow Jones Industrial Average (including dividend) in 2021. Worth two points.
13. Which asset class will give the best returns in 2021?
14. Which company will agree to the acquisition in 2021?
F. Everyone will be free.
15. Which 2020 winning stock will perform best in 2021?
16. Which CEO will no longer be at the helm at the end of 2021?
D. Bob Swan of Intel
17. Tiebreaker. At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average end 2021? (It’s now about 30,000.)
We received over 3,000 responses for the 2022 Quiz and we will announce the winner in January 2023.
no more santa claus
Shares slipped at the beginning of the week. Tuesday was Fed Day, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill. Four rate hikes were agreed upon in 2022, starting in March. The index rose even after December’s inflation numbers came in at 7% year over year, only to fall hard on Thursday, led by tech. Earnings round started with a fall in bank stocks. In the week, Dow Industrialists fell 0.9% to 35,911.81; The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 4662.85; And the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.3% at 14,893.75.
Powell was grilled on inflation, interest rates, and ethics. He acknowledged that inflation is a “serious threat”, but added that supply-chain problems will subside. His testimony followed the resignation of Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, following revelations that his business activities were greater than he described. Powell said the new ethics rules would effectively eliminate the officers’ ability to “proactively conduct business”. President Biden named former Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Ruskin as vice president for oversight.
a shot at the mandate
The Supreme Court blocked the administration’s corporate vaccine mandate, 6-3, allowing for healthcare workers at facilities that accept Medicare and Medicaid. Local governments and companies can also set their own mandates. Citigroup,
For example, it said it would sack anyone who refused vaccination by the end of the month. The Omicron surge, meanwhile, may be peaking in the Northeast, while still rising nationally.
US and Russian talks on Ukraine began, with both sides holding their position: Russia demanded that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO; The US is threatening sanctions if Russia attacks Ukraine. After those talks, Russia sat down with NATO, insisting there was no ultimatum or time line, but calling for a “rapid response”, then declaring them a “dead end”. The Ukrainian government was then hit by a cyber attack.
shock to biogen
In an unusual, if early, decision, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said it would only reimburse patients for Biogen’s Alzheimer’s therapy, EduHelm, that was in clinical trials. Doubts have been raised about the effectiveness of the drug. Shares fell 5%.
History of Deal Making
Take-Two Interactive Software said it will acquire Zynga for $12.7 billion in cash and a 64% premium in stock. Zynga, best known farm Ville, gives Take-Two a bigger presence in mobile gaming. Zynga stock was hurt by Apple‘s
Changes in privacy rules… Cerberus cut stakes in Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, which it bought in 2017, when it looked like troubled German banks would merge. They never did… Citadel Securities sold a $1.2 billion stake to venture-capital firms Sequoia and Paradigm, possibly in preparation for the IPO, valuing it at $22 billion… Citigroup said it would sell its Mexico retail bank, Will sell or IPO Banmex, and take off some of Asia. Retail units worth $3.6 billion… TPG of private equity went public at a valuation of $10.4 billion.
Write Andrew Berry [email protected] Feather