Bet against tech and these other winners from the Fed’s loose policies, says Bank of America strategist

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It’s time to bet against the winners from the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary easing during the pandemic, a top Bank of America strategist.

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Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, said the Fed will be very hawkish the next nine months after inflation soared, reaching 7% in December.

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That means, “short the winners of Fed’s liquidity supernova…tech, IG, private equity.” The Fed has taken its balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion, and other central banks, as a percentage of their GDP, have been even more aggressive.

Investors already have started to punish the winners from low interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite Comp,
+0.59%
retreated 2.5% on Thursday after officials including Fed Gov. Christopher Waller discussed making as many as five increases in 2022. The ARK Innovation ETF ARKK,
+0.33%,
a proxy for futuristic but largely unprofitable companies, has dropped 47% from its February highs.

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Investment-grade bonds, and private-equity, are less talked about during the current concerns over likely Fed interest rate hikes this year.

The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD,
-0.88%
has slipped 2% this year and is down 5% from its August highs.

The Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF PSP,
-1.20%
has dropped 2% this year and 9% from its highs in November.

Hartnett said the interest rate shock will be global this year. The G7 unemployment rate is near a 40-year low of 4.5%, and the price of the Austrian 100-year bond has tumbled.

In terms of what he recommends on the long side, Hartnett said high quality, defensive stocks should benefit on tighter financial conditions; oil, energy, and other so-called real assets should gain due to inflation; European and emerging market banks may do well as economies recover; and distressed Asian credit may offer opportunities.

One other note he made was that the US dollar DXY,
+0.40%
was fading despite an increasingly hawkish Fed monetary policy. He said that’s because global investors are losing their faith in the US recovery. Rising yields and a weak dollar is reminiscent of the 1970s, when cash and commodities outperformed stocks and bonds, which is what we’re seeing in 2022, he said.

The dollar has slipped 1% while the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.792%
has climbed 21 basis points this year.

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