Biden’s big social-spending bill probably will pass Senate this month without many cuts to it, analysts say

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Will President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion social-spending and climate package really get the Senate’s OK this month, as the leader of that chamber has promised?

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Two analysts from opposite ends of the political spectrum said that it seems, as they spoke with Businesshala on Wednesday. baron live episode,

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“I think the chances are very, very good that this bill will pass, and I wouldn’t bet on mortgages on it, but I predict it’s going to happen by this month,” said Seth Hanlon, a senior partner. . Liberal Center for American Progress.

Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, agreed with Hanlon, as analysts assess Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s stated goal of passing Christmas. The law already received House approval last month, so if the Senate acts and both houses reconcile their versions of the measure, Biden could sign it into law.

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“I think the Build Back Better Act eventually gets passed. I think before Christmas seems like a reasonable timeline,” Pomerleau said. “There are other political challenges involved, if it ends in the next year, and I think Democrats want to avoid that.”

According to Hanlon, Democrats may also be motivated by not defaulting on monthly child tax credit payments. Those payments, which began in the summer and provide families with up to $300 per child, will be extended for another year in the current version of the Build Back Better Act.

“The child tax credit payment — the last one will be made on December 15th, and so I think Democrats want to continue that in January and not cut them all of a sudden,” said a Center for American Progress expert.

Hanlon and Pomerleau said they don’t expect the Build Back Better Act’s overall price tag to change drastically, even as moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia called for some items in the House version of the bill. expressed opposition to the plan. Paid leave and a $4,500 tax credit for electric vehicles manufactured in United States factories. Another issue that is dividing Democratic lawmakers is a proposed lift to the SALT cap, which refers to the deduction limit from federal income tax for state and local taxes.

“I think the $2 trillion in spending, including tax credits, is a reasonable place that they will end,” Pomerleau said, referring to the potential final price tag.

Meanwhile, Hanlon noted that this year there has been a lot of negotiations to get to the current state of affairs, following Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont Independent, who usually votes with Democrats and on the side of his chamber’s budget committee. presiding, proposed a huge spending package.

“If you start with President Biden’s agenda and Sen. Sanders’ budget, we’re down to relatively narrow, limited issues and a very narrow band of overall price tags,” he said.

“I would expect Sen to shrink somewhat because of Munchkin, but not that much. I think 90% of the bill will remain the same.”

Democrats can’t afford to lose the support of any senators who normally vote with them, as they move the bill through a process known as budget reconciliation. That’s because the Senate is split 50-50, with the party in control only because Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties.

Now Congress Faces Shutdown Deadline, Hurdles to Biden’s Build Back Better Plan

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