Biogen’s Alzheimer’s Drug Has Another Shot at Success

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biogen‘s
EduHelm, an Alzheimer’s disease therapy, has been disappointing for the company since its Food and Drug Administration approval last spring, with sales far below Wall Street’s expectations and many medical systems declining to offer it to patients.

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Investor despair has driven Biogen’s shares down 30.7% over the past six months.

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This coming week, Biogen will have a shot at redemption. As of Wednesday, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which administers the Medicare program, are scheduled to issue proposed guidelines that will determine whether Medicare will cover EduHelm.

The procedure has come to the fore amid doctors’ skepticism over the drug’s effectiveness. Medicare coverage is essential to Aduhelm’s business future, given that the majority of Alzheimer’s patients in the US are on Medicare.

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The proposed guidelines won’t be completed until April, but what comes next week will give investors an idea of ​​how CMS is leaning. Possibilities range from full coverage to no coverage, with a few options in between.

Even the proposed guidelines that are positive for Biogen won’t quell investor concerns. “The market may need time to see an uptick in sales,” Jefferies analyst Michael Yee recently wrote. A generally positive result could push Biogen shares up 5% to 15% next week, while a generally negative result could push shares down 10% to 20%, he added.

The proposed guidelines will apply not only to Eduhelme, but also to similar drugs that may be approved in the future, such as Eli Lilly‘s
donanemab.

next week

Monday 1/10

Cannabis maker Tilray reports second quarter fiscal-2022 results

Tuesday 1/11

Albertsons calls a conference to discuss earnings.

Senate Banking The committee holds hearings to weigh the nomination of Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve for another four-year term. Lyle Brainard’s nomination as vice president will be taken up by the same committee on Thursday, January 13.

National Association Of Independent Business released its Small Business Optimism Index for December. The consensus estimate is for a 99.5 reading, almost a point higher than the November figure.

Wednesday 1/12

labor bureau The figures report the Consumer Price Index for December. Economists have forecast a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, after a 6.8% increase in December, the fastest clip since 1982. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 5.4%, half a percentage point higher. Compared to November, which was the highest since 1991. Inflation has become a major concern on both Main Street and Wall Street as the Federal Reserve acknowledges it is not transitory.

federal Reserve For the first time this year released the book in beige color eight times. The report collects anecdotal information and summarizes current economic conditions from 12 Federal Reserve districts.

Thursday 1/13

Delta Air Lines and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hold conference call to discuss quarterly results.

BLS Report Producer Price Index for December. The consensus estimate is for a 0.4% monthly profit, while the core PPI is seeing a 0.5% increase. This compares with growth of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in November.

Labour Department Reports preliminary jobless claims for the week ending January 8. In the first week of December, jobless claims were below 190,000, a level not seen in more than half a century.

Friday 1/14

fourth quarter earnings season The three largest US banks begin in earnest with earnings reports. JPMorgan Chase,

Wells Fargo,
And Citigroup all release their results before the opening bell.

BlackRock and First Republic Bank released earnings.

University of Michigan Releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for January. Even with roughly December figures, the reading is expected to be 70.4. The index is down nearly 20% from its postpandemic peak in April due to rising prices and consumer concerns about housing costs.

census Bureau Reports retail sales data for December. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-on-month jump for consumer spending. Excluding autos, spending is also witnessing a 0.3% increase. This will match the November figures for both releases.

Write Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]

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