Brace yourself, the Fed is about to inflict ‘some pain’ in its fight against inflation — here’s how to prepare your wallet and portfolio

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The Fed is ready to bring the pain, so are you ready?

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Weeks earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned there would be “some pain for homes and businesses” as the central bank raised interest rates to try to fight four decades of high inflation.

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Wall Street is widely anticipating another 75-basis point hike for the federal funds rate, a repeat of the Fed’s previous decisions in June and July.

The Fed will reveal on Wednesday afternoon how much it will increase its key interest rate. The increase will ultimately affect credit-card rates, car loans, mortgages and, of course, investment portfolio balances.

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If the Fed reveals another 75-basis point increase, it would bring the policy rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25%. At the same time last year it was close to 0%.

Now, the average annual percentage rates on new credit cards are 18.10%The last time it reached an APR of 18.12% was in January 1996. car loan reached 5% and mortgage rates hit 6% for the first time since 2008,

The moves are not lost on Wall Street. Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
-0.46%
is down 15.5% year-on-year and the S&P 500 SPX,
-0.41%
Over 19% has been dragged down by several concerns, including a hawkish Fed.

,‘I believe the Fed will be in pain if they want to maintain their credibility, which we believe they will, and if they really want to get inflation under control.’,


— Amit Sinha, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Design at Voya Investment Management

Six in ten people say they are moderately or extremely concerned about rising interest rates, according to a nationwide survey released on Tuesday. More than two-thirds of the rates are expected to climb potentially much higher in the coming six months.

do not take it personally. The Fed is raising borrowing costs to spur demand and calm inflation, said Amit Sinha, managing director and head of multi-asset design, Voya Investment Management, Voya Financial Voya’s asset management business.
-0.07%,

“I believe the Fed will be in pain if they want to maintain their credibility, which we believe they will, and if they really want to get inflation under control,” Sinha said.

But experts advise not to make the Fed’s decision final. Keeping debt under control, timing major, rate-sensitive purchases and rebalancing eye portfolios can be ways to ease the financial pain to come.

pay off the loan as soon as possible

Americans had about $890 billion in credit-card debt during the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Rising APRs make it more expensive to carry a balance, and a new survey shows that more people are holding loans for longer periods of time — and paying more interest as a result.

Experts say focus on reducing high-interest debt. There are very few investment products with a good bet of double-digit returns in the future, so get rid of the double-digit APRs on those credit-card balances, they note.

This can be done even with inflation above 8%, said financial advisor Susan Greenhall, president of Mind Your Money, LLC in Hope, RI Start, by writing off all debt, breaking down principal and interest. Then group all income and expenses one at a time, listing expenses from largest to smallest, she said.

“Visual connection” is important, she said. People may have an idea of ​​how they are spending money, Greenlag said, but “until you see it black in white, you don’t know.”

From there, people can see where they can spend. If the trade-off turns out to be tough, Greenlag makes it back in financial pain. “If the debt is causing more pain than some expense cut or adjustment, you make the deduction or adjustment in favor of paying off the debt,” she said.

Make Big Purchases Carefully

Higher rates are now helping to keep people away from big purchases. Look no further than the housing market.

But the financial ups and downs of life aren’t always favorable to the Fed’s policies. “You can’t take time off when your kids go to college. You cannot find out the time when you need to go from place A to place B,” Sinha said.

It becomes a matter of separating “desired” purchases from “necessary”. Those who determine that they still need to proceed with the purchase of a car or home should remember that they can always refinance later, the advisor says.

If you decide to hold off on a large purchase, choose some threshold as a re-entry point to resume the search. This could be a drop in interest rates to a certain level, or asking prices on a car or house.

While waiting, avoid putting the payment amount for the house back in the stock market, he said. The risk of volatility and loss outweighs the potential for short-term gains.

A safe, liquid haven such as a money-market fund or even a savings account — which is enjoying an increase in annual percentage return (APY) due to rising rates — can be a safe place to park money. Which is ready to go if a buying opportunity suddenly pops up and seems right.

According to Ken Tumin, founder and editor, the average APY for online savings accounts has increased from 0.54% in May to 1.81%. deposit accounts.comWhereas the online one-year certificate of deposit (CD) has increased from 1.01% in May to 2.67%.

Reading Rai: Surprise! CDs are in vogue with Treasury and I-bonds as a safe haven for your cash

Portfolio rebalancing for rocky times

Standard rules always apply: Long-term investors with at least 10 years’ exposure should stay fully invested, Sinha said. Havoc for the stock now could offer pay-out deals later on, he said, but people should at least consider increasing their fixed income exposure to commensurate with their risk tolerance.

It can start with government bonds. “We are in an environment where you are paid to be a saver,” he said. This is a fact reflected in increasing returns on savings accounts, but also in returns on 1-Year Treasury Bills TMUBMUSD01Y,
3.932%
and 2 year note TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.061%,
They said. Yields for both are hovering at 4%, up from close to 0% a year ago. So feel free to lean into that, he said.

As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. BlackRock’s Gargi Choudhary said shorter duration bonds, with less chance for interest rates to push down the market value, are attractive. “The short end of the investment-grade corporate-bond curve remains attractive,” Chowdhury, head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas, said in a note on Tuesday.

“We are more cautious on long-term bonds as we expect rates to remain at their current levels or even rise for some time,” Chowdhury said. “We urge patience as we believe we will see more attractive levels to enter long positions over the next few months.”

For equities, like the health and pharmaceutical sectors, think stable and high quality right now, she said.

Whatever the array of stocks and bonds, make sure it’s not a willy-nilly mix for mix, said Eric Cooper, a financial planner at Commonwealth Financial Group.

He said the idea and strategy for risk and reward now and in the future should match and match a person’s gut. And remember, the current pain in the equity market may pay off later. In the end, Cooper said, “What’s saving you is crushing you now.”

Credit: www.marketwatch.com /

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