Can We Expect More Gains From Nordstrom’s Stock After A 27% Rise?

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Nordstrom’s stock (NYSE: JWN), the upscale specialty retailer offering apparel, shoes, cosmetics, and accessories for women, men, and children, has seen its stock grow by almost 27% over the last month (about 21 trading days), compared to the S&P 500 which grew only 4% over the same period. JWN’s stock rose after the announcement that it would be resuming its quarterly dividend at $0.19 share, after almost two years of eliminating it in order to conserve cash. The retailer stopped its $0.37 per share quarterly dividend due to the forced business closures in 2020. While the resumed quarterly dividend is almost half of the previous payment level, still this seems like a big step in the right direction.

In fiscal 2022, Nordstrom’s initial outlook calls for revenue to grow 5% to 7% year-over-year. This implies revenue would rebound to at least the $15.5 billion the company generated in fiscal 2019. In addition, the company expects adjusted earnings per share to range between $3.15 and $3.50 in fiscal 2022, which would also match the company’s 2019 EPS of $3.37. By the look of things, the company is expected to make meaningful progress this year.

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Now, is JWN stock poised to decline in the short term or are looking more likely to make gains? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 61% chance of a rise in JWN stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on JWN’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of -2.9% or lower over five-day period on 547 occasions out of 2516 (22%), Stock rose in the next five days in 275 of these 547 instances (50%)

[2] Returns of 13% or higher over ten-day period on 131 occasions out of 2516 (5%), Stock rose in the next ten days in 57 of these 131 instances (44%)

[3] Returns of 27% or higher over twenty-one-day period on 54 occasions out of 2516 (2%), Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 33 of these 54 instances (61%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. JWN Peers shows how Nordstrom’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons,

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