IBM stock has risen by 9% over the last week (five trading days), meaningfully outperforming the S&P 500, which remains down by almost 3% over the same period. The stock also remains up by almost 8% over the last month (around 21 trading days). There are a couple of factors that have helped IBM
However, now that IBM stock has seen a rise of about 8% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal change a rise or decline in IBM stock over the next month, Out of 185 instances in the last ten years that IBM stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 8% or more, 97 of them resulted in IBM stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 97 out of 185, or only about a 52% chance of a rise in IBM stock over the coming month. See our analysis on IBM Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years’ data
- After moving 9.2% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 21% of the occasions.
- After moving 7.5% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 54% of the occasions.
- After moving 7.8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 52% of the occasions.
We estimate IBM valuation to be around $153 per share, about 10% ahead of the current market price.
Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates
Credit: www.forbes.com /