Economy Week Ahead: Inflation, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales

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Inflation measures in China and the US highlight this week’s economic data

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The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook Report during annual meetings. The latest forecast is likely to underline the relatively quick economic recovery of advanced economies along with a slow recovery with less access to COVID-19 vaccines in developing countries.

Wednesday
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According to economists surveyed by Businesshala, China’s factory-gate prices for September are expected to rise 10.4% from a year earlier, a pace that would surpass its previous peak in 2008. . Producer prices have risen this year due to higher commodity prices, but so far this has not affected consumer inflation. Economists estimate the consumer price index rose only 0.7% in September from a year earlier.

Inflation is expected to rise from the September US consumer-price index as companies pass along higher costs for materials and labor. Rising energy prices contributed to the headline CPI, while core prices, which excluding food and energy, may begin to reflect climbing shelter costs.

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The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September meeting, potentially providing additional insight on plans to ease pandemic-related stimulus.

Thursday

US jobless claims are projected to decline for the second week in a row as employers hold on to workers in a tight labor market. Data on claims, a proxy for layoffs, will cover the week ending October 9.

Friday

US retail sales are expected to decline in September. US consumers appear to be in good financial shape, but Covid-related caution, rising prices and widespread supply-chain disruptions are weighing down purchases. The auto industry has been particularly hard hit by semiconductor shortages – separate data released earlier this month showed US vehicle sales in September fell to their lowest level since the start of the pandemic Is.

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