FACTBOX-Wall Street forecasts for the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yield in 2022

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    NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Businesshala) - Wall Street banks have started
to release their forecasts for the end of 2022 for euro/dollar,
dollar/yen, and the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.
    
Here is a summary of their forecasts:
    
 Bank             Euro/dollar   Dollar/yen  U.S. 10-year
                                            Treasury yield
 Barclays         $1.19         115 yen     1.75%
 Morgan Stanley   $1.18         118 yen     2.1%
 Goldman Sachs    $1.18         111 yen     2.0%
 JP Morgan        $1.12         114 yen     2.10%
 (end-Sept 2022)                            
 Wells Fargo      $1.10-$1.18   110-120     2.00-2.50%
 Investment                                 
 Institute                                  
    
Barclays
    Dollar: "We expect modest U.S. dollar depreciation over the
coming year, reflecting our views of a positive backdrop for
risk and commodities alongside moderate U.S. dollar
overvaluation. Upside risks are largely from risk-off moves
rather than U.S. outperformance and limited relative to downside
risks stemming from aggressive market pricing for tighter Fed
policy."  
    
Morgan Stanley
    U.S. 10-year yields: "Continued strong growth in 2022,
alongside receding but above-target inflation, keeps the Fed
patient, yet gradually moving toward rate hikes, and keeps
Treasury yields moving higher."
    Dollar vs euro and yen: "We see an up-and-down profile for
the U.S. dollar. A Fed emphasizing that maximum employment is
ways away and that subsequent hikes post-lift-off are likely to
be gradual despite improving data is likely to increasingly
contrast with other central banks who, having been quite dovish
so far, are beginning to discuss normalization plans of their
own. Policy divergence increasingly becomes policy convergence,
and U.S. dollar turns lower in response."
    
Goldman Sachs 
    Dollar: "Although the broad dollar likely has more downside
than upside over the medium term, for it to actually depreciate
the structural and cyclical drivers need to align, and we are
now less sure that will be the case over the coming year... We
revised down our 12-month EUR/USD forecast to $1.18 from $1.25
previously."
    
JPMorgan 
    Dollar: "Policy repricing amid the ongoing supply-side
inflation shock continues. Monetary policy divergence remains a
theme for some pairs. Developments in the U.S. -- a more
open-minded Fed on inflation and a tight labor market report—are
supportive of U.S. dollar longs against the euro and yen.

 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Alden
Bentley and Dan Grebler)
  
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