Fearless retail traders could help save the stock market in 2022

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Investors look set to hit the edge for Thursday before producer prices come a day after some nosebleed consumer-inflation data. We are one day away from the start of fourth quarter earnings, which will be kicked off by the big banks.

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“US equities are now firmly in a trading range, and we believe pushing US equities out of trading range will require a significant surprise on earnings (either way) or a breakout in the US 10-year yield. Peter Garnery, head of the equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note to clients.

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Inflation updates have sparked a lot of buzz about when the Federal Reserve will hike rates, with March feeling like a shoo-in for the first time. This chart from Clearbridge Investments shows that equities often tend to make that first move, and then settle in profit.

clearbridge/factset

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“In the post-liftoff period, the market has historically regained its footing,” Jeff Schulz, investment strategist at Clearbridge Investments with Franklin Templeton Investments, said in a webcast to clients on Wednesday. Here’s another chart from that presentation, showing stock returns as rates increase over time:

ClearBridge/Goldman Sachs, data as of December 31, 2021.

Our call of the day The ClearBridge/Franklin Templeton team says that retailers may once again provide support for stocks this year. In short, “retail will replace the fed put.”

As Schultz explained, investors have been buoyed by expectations in the past that the Fed is always there to support equities in times of trouble. With central banks shrinking and tightening in 2022, the theory is that retailers may be ready to buy any fall.

As his chart shows, in 2021, investors poured more money into global equities than in the previous 25 years. It was predicted in early 2021 by Deutsche Bank and others, which saw a “fearless” swarm of new investors driving money into stocks.

“With retail investors stepping in to buy the dips, the market did not experience a significant downtrend in 2021,” Schulz said in the presentation. January typically has the largest inflows of any month, indicating that The retail put remains intact.” ,

Adding further support to this theory is a new survey from Investing.com showing that 86 percent of first-time stock buyers from last year plan to continue buying into 2022. The survey of 1,600 US respondents also showed that they are more likely to take risks. 58% including cryptocurrencies in the portfolio, and an even greater interest in buying meme stocks.

Schultz said that although it’s not entirely clear whether those retail investors will appear this year, he believes the addiction around “TINA” — not an option (for stocks) — will help. Can do.

Clearbridge, S&P, Dow Jones, Businesshala

And it’s not just retailers buying stock, it’s also corporations buying and selling “very aggressively,” Schultz said.

buzz

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, we’ll find December maker prices, which are expected to show a 0.4% monthly increase along with weekly jobless claims at the same time.

irrigated. Governor Lyle Brainard will testify at 10 a.m. at his Senate nomination hearing as the central bank’s next vice president. In prepared remarks released on Tuesday, she said inflation was “very high” and that the Fed needs to focus on bringing it back to 2%.

coinbase share coin,
-1.07%
Cryptos are climbing after the exchange announced plans to buy derivatives exchange FairX. And here’s a guide to answering the cryptocurrency question that will appear on your tax form this year.

A laboratory study showed that cannabis compounds inhibited infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. blocking your way to cells,

taiwan semiconductor tsm,
+2.37%

2330,
+0.15%
reported record profit and revenue due to increased demand for its chips.

Private-equity firm TPG Partners, valued at $9 billion, will make its public debut on Thursday, with shares set to begin trading at $29.50.

Delta Air Lines DAL,
-1.50%
Shares are rallying after adjusted profit and revenue beat forecasts.

Market

stock futures ES00,
+0.05%

YM00,
+0.12%

NQ 00,
+0.05%
Bond yields are stable as of TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.750%
Creep in the wake of four decades of high consumer prices. Dollar DXY,
-0.10%
continues to decline, and oil prices CL00,
-0.36%
are also under pressure.

ticker

These are the most active tickers on Businesshala as of 6am.

anchor

security name

TSLA,
+3.93%

Tesla

GME,
-1.72%

GameStop

AMC,
-0.31%

AMC Entertainment

NIO,
+5.53%

NIO

tsm,
+2.37%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

AAPL,
+0.26%

Apple

Dad,
+3.95%

Alibaba

NVDA,
+0.65%

NVIDIA

ocgn,
+0.24%

ocugen

lcd,
-0.09%

lucid

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