Oct 10 (Businesshala) – Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. economic growth target to 5.6% for 2021 and 4% for 2022, buoyed by an expected decline in fiscal support by the end of next year and more delays in consumer spending than previously thought. Referring to recovery.
The firm previously expected 5.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, according to research released Sunday by authors including its chief economist Jan Hetzius.
He pointed to a “long-lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive consumer services” as well as an expectation that semiconductor supply likely won’t improve until the first half of 2022, delaying inventory restocking until next year.
And on top of the near-term virus drag, they expect spending on some services and non-durables to be consistently below pre-pandemic trends, especially “if the shift to remote work results in fewer workers.” Spends.”
On a quarterly basis, Goldman cut its fourth quarter 2021 and first quarter 2022 GDP forecasts from 5% to 4.5% and second quarter 2022 forecasts from 4.5% to 4%, compared with third quarter estimates. was reduced from 3.5% to 3%. .
However, it raised the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.75% from 1.5%. (Reporting by Sinead Carew; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)