The Supreme Court will likely overturn Roe v. Wade and give states the freedom to outlaw abortion, according to a draft opinion reported by Politicowhich would result in more than a dozen states swiftly banning the procedure, with more likely to follow—and could result in even bigger implications like a nationwide ban or other rights being targeted.

Key Facts

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If Roe is overturned, 13 states have “trigger bans” in effect that will ban abortion immediately or soon after the ruling comes out, as compiled by the pro-abortion rights Guttmacher Institute: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

Another five states still have abortion bans from before Roe was decided that will go back into effect if it’s struck down: Alabama, Arizona, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan, whose pre-Roe ban Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is now challenging in court.

Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and South Carolina have six-week abortion bans that would likely now take effect, and the Guttmacher Institute predicts it’s likely Florida, Indiana, Montana and Nebaska would also move to ban the procedure.

Democratic-led states are expected to preserve abortion access, with 15 states already having a law or state constitution that protects abortion rights, according to to the Pew Charitable Trust: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington, plus Washington, DC

Some states like Washington are also enacting laws that are designed to help ensure people can travel from other states for the procedure.

The Food and Drug Administration changed its regulations in December to allow medication abortion pills to be sent by mail, which would expand access to abortion, but at least 19 states have bans on getting the pills delivered by mail or via telehealth—which could still be challenged in court—and more will likely follow.


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