How Will Tesla Stock Do in 2022? Deliveries Are the First Point to Watch.

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Tesla expects to deliver 1.42 million cars in 2022.

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Luke Sharrett / Businesshala

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Tesla’s fourth-quarter delivery figures, shortly after the world rings in the new year, are likely to be the first 2022 data points that investors can use to gauge the stock’s outlook. Bullish people are very optimistic about the electric-vehicle maker.

Tesla (ticker: TSLA) generally discloses its delivery figures on the second day of the quarter, regardless of the weekend. That is, the fourth quarter figures are likely to come on Sunday. January 2, Although it is possible that they could come Monday Because of New Year’s holiday.

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The Wall Street consensus, according to FactSet, calls for the delivery of 267,000 vehicles. This will be a record and will be delivered in 241,300 third quarter of 2020. The Wall Street consensus figure, compiled by Tesla itself, has approximately 266,000 solicited deliveries.

The company will need to do better than this to keep the stock higher because the veiled secret about Wall Street’s projections is that they tend to be lower. Investors, companies and analysts all feel better when companies beat estimates.

The so-called whisper number for Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries is probably somewhere between 275,000 and 285,000 units. A number in that range would be a good result, while anything higher would be excellent.

If the numbers are strong, it usually means good things for the stock in Tesla’s earnings release. When management reports and discloses quarterly earnings, Tesla shares have outperformed the S&P 500 seven of the past nine times. Financial results come about three or four weeks after the delivery number.

Tesla needs to deliver 272,650 vehicles to hit 900,000 in 2021. That would be quite an achievement, given that Tesla delivered about 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

In 2022, Wall Street is currently forecasting deliveries of approximately 1.42 million vehicles, including 296,000 in the first quarter. This will be another year of big growth. Tesla has two new manufacturing facilities in Texas and Germany, which will ramp up production in early 2022. The ability for Tesla to sell everything that comes from its factories will be a big swing factor for the stock in 2022.

The stock recovered in 2021 after rising 743% in 2022. As of Thursday, Tesla stock was up more than 50% in 2021, far better than the comparable returns of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.,

It’s been another profitable, yet wild, year for Tesla investors. Tesla stock was at $1,070.34 at the close of trading on Thursday. The stock’s 52-week low was just below $540 in March.

Write to Al Root at [email protected]

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