Around third grade, most of us learned that fractions have two parts—the numerator is the top number and the denominator is at the bottom.
A simple excerpt can help you understand where the US economy is headed in the future. Part is our workforce, which will tell us a lot about how much economic activity we will have and how many tax dollars will be available for essential services from police to social security. And the denominator is our overall population, which can give an estimate of how many employees we’ll have.
Our economy will not grow for long unless both the numerator and the denominator are increasing.
But America is in deep trouble on both fronts. Our labor force participation is still far below before this Epidemic. and census bureau informed of That America’s population grew at a slower rate in 2021 than at any time since the founding of America two hundred years ago.
Nationally, our stable population has historically been driven by low Birth Immigration rates and declining rates. Locally, there are many states and cities. hemorrhaging Residents among cost, quality of living, taxation and public safety concerns. Solutions to these problems are different but government leaders at every level need to understand the danger: If every little bit of our population becomes smaller, it will reduce the quality of life for every American. Economic growth in many developed countries is already Estimate Slow down over the next 20 years due to declining population. And the gray population continues to burden the government with debt, as evidenced by Japan, which has the world’s oldest population, as well as its largest share. Gross Domestic Product to Debt of any country. Companies facing labor shortage are trying to achieve productivity margins by turning to automation.
Another way to achieve productivity is by expanding the total population of America, which can only be done in one of two ways. One is to have more children for the people here. I have done my job – I have four children and four grandchildren so far. But the US birth rate has been declining for years and recently hit the lowest level annual level in a century. We have effectively reached “ZPG” or zero population growth and our US-born workforce is shrinking. Even if the birth rate in the US has increased, it will take 20 years to invest in a child born today before they begin to significantly impact our economy.
This leaves option two: allow more immigration, where there is a more immediate benefit to the economy.
That’s exactly what the American people want—75% of Americans Say Immigration is a “good thing” for America. Of course, even though Americans have very favorable views about immigrants, their concern is over unauthorized Immigration is at a two-decade high, which is no surprise given that even unspecified border crossings are at record levels.
The solution here is so obvious and urgent. Washington needs to deliver immigration reform that secures borders to prevent unauthorized immigration while passing policies that encourage legal immigration. As more jobs become vacant, the incentive for legal immigration increases to fill the open jobs.
If Washington doesn’t act, Americans will continue to get the exact opposite of what they want: low levels legal High levels of immigration and unauthorized immigration.
But if Washington can instead manage to secure the border and increase legal immigration, then every historical data we have tells us we can expect our economy to move fastTo reduce the fiscal deficit of our government and Construction of new businesses – approx. are responsible for All Net new job growth in the US- to increase. This is because immigrants are a uniquely motivated and entrepreneurial group of people; they twice There is a possibility of starting a new business as a Native American. half of all fortune 500 companies were started by an immigrant or their children.
Of course, Washington isn’t the only place that needs to act swiftly to arrest the shrinking population denominator. Many cities and states have seen residents flee since the start of the pandemic. New York, the state I live in, is lost 300,000 residents, and have seen the largest Exodus as part of its population. Many of those who have left are high-income residents cities and states desperately need to keep up. More may follow, especially as other states offer attractive incentives such as lower taxes, better climates and safer roads to attract wealthier residents.
Consider that the top one percent of New Yorkers pay almost a third of state income tax — and more 40% of New York City’s income tax—which funds schools, transportation, aid to families in need, law enforcement, and everything else.
I am a lifelong New Yorker and have no plans to leave. I want to help this city bounce back.
But others will hold a different election until city and state officials begin to pin down some of the main reasons why people are fleeing in the first place.
If you look at the four states nationwide that have lost the most populations – New York, Illinois, Hawaii and California – you will see that they all have some things in common.
These states have a lot to offer their residents – lots to do and lots of places to go. But I grew up in the hotel industry and soon learned that amenities are not everything. A hotel may have the best rooms and great food, but not if its staff is rude, if it has trouble checking in and out, if its prices are unreasonable, and if it doesn’t make your guests feel safe and secure. so you can bet it will have empty rooms.
Unless state and local leaders gain better control over people’s real costs and quality of living, their populations are likely to continue shrinking to the detriment of every state or city resident left behind.
For too long, our leaders have refused to take necessary steps to increase the population at all levels. Instead, he has, over the past two years, imagined that America could find its way out of every problem. As a result, prices are at four decades old. High And both consumers and businesses are tapping into the dreaded hoarding or “spend” psychology, in which consumers accelerate purchases because they believe prices will rise in the future and businesses raise prices because they believe future costs will increase. will increase, thereby making the current consumption of resources more attractive and stressful.
Even now, leaders in Washington are pursuing ambitious new Expense Plans as a cure-all for our nation’s ills, while many mayors and governors refuse to address the root causes of why people are fleeing their cities and states.
It is time for our leaders to go back to school, and embrace the basic math that should lead policymakers to a solution – developing and passing policies that increase population.
Credit: www.forbes.com /