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Vir Biotechnology has an underestimated opportunity in the flu prevention market, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Eric Joseph upgraded the stock from neutral to overweight. It cut its price target by $1 to $34, still suggesting upside potential of 48.9% from Friday’s close. “Vir Biotechnology has long-term options for treating a variety of infectious diseases, including hepatitis B and influenza A,” he said in a note to clients on Monday. Joseph said the company could play a role in preventing influenza among high-risk seniors, which have a market value of $3 billion. The population is thought to be under-covered with influenza prevention measures already available, with adults over 65 accounting for 44% of hospital admissions and more than 70% of virus-related deaths in the US and European Union each year. The drug, if approved, must also be able to be administered along with the typical seasonal vaccination. He said stocks could rise when the latest data from the Peninsula study comes out, given that it is expected to be a linear reading of an earlier study targeting young adults. Stocks could rise more than 50% as a result of the study, but could fall as much as 10% if the data doesn’t meet expectations, he said. Joseph added that the company may need to provide more information about the stock’s RNC in order to move more in the trial only. Joseph predicted a product launch in 2027 with a peak net collaboration revenue of $950 million. It works out to $5 per share. Meanwhile, the company is also moving ahead with its hepatitis B franchise, which is expected to launch in the US in 2028. The company’s peak revenue could be $3.3 billion, which is $10 to $12 per share after royalties and milestones are included. commitment and assuming a 30% chance of success. New data is expected to arrive in the second half of 2023. Joseph also excluded revenue from sotrovimab, a drug used to treat acute conditions caused by Covid, after the first half of 2023, given that demand will decrease as more people are vaccinated. Shares rose 6.7% in premarket trading. But the stock is down 9.8% this year, down from 39.6% last year. In the early years of the public company, the stock fell sharply, recording 113% and 56.4% gains in 2020 and 2021, respectively. VIR ALL Mount Vir – Michael Bloom of CNBC
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