(Repeat Friday’s story without changing the text)
October 1 (Businesshala) – Crude oil prices at $80 a barrel topped the markets agenda as key US jobs numbers on Friday and an OPEC+ meeting on Monday to review oil output as it hits 2021 Heads into Homestretch after a bumpy Q3 ride.
Here are five stories likely to dominate the thinking of investors and traders in the coming week:
In September, the US Fed said monthly bond purchases could be cut “soon”; Chair Jerome Powell said here that it would take a more “decent” jobs report to set the wheels in motion – not “super-strong”, just a “reasonably good one”.
Do Friday’s September non-farm numbers – the last official jobs report before the Fed’s November meeting – do the trick?
A Businesshala poll expects 500,000 jobs to be added after the massive August lapse. The Fed’s purchases of government bonds worth $120 billion a month helped the S&P 500 double from its March 2020 lows. But the prospects of tapering and rate hikes have raised US Treasury yields and contributed to the S&P’s 4% decline here in September.
Stronger-than-expected numbers could fuel fears that the Fed could wind up easier-money policies faster than anticipated, potentially creating more market turbulence. – “Reasonably good” September jobs start Fed taper. Is another friend coming? Treasury yields batter ARK fund amid broad tech sell-off
Rate decisions are to be made in Australia and New Zealand – two countries geographically separated only by the Tasman Sea but worlds apart on monetary policy.
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank is set to pull the trigger on Wednesday, with the markets all sure of a quarter-point increase in the key rate of 0.5%. Governor Adrian Orr and crew were set to become the first in the developed world to hike in August, but a COVID outbreak foiled those plans at a policy meeting here, with Norges Bank to take the honors here. left.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and Hawk-Dove sits on the other end of the spectrum. Despite a red-hot housing market here, Governor Philip Lowe recently threw cold water on the markets, saying he “finds it hard to understand why rates are going up next year or early 2023.” -Norway started exiting the great central bank as rates hiked
3/Winter of Discontent
Power cuts in China, queues at fuel pumps in Britain, skyrocketing electricity prices everywhere.
Headlines resonate with the 1970s – and nowhere more so than in Britain, where the military would help ease fuel shortages that have led to gaps on supermarket shelves and fights at gas stations. Here the end of a COVID jobs support means more uncertainty.
For some, the 1970s-style “winter of discontent” is coming, when Britain’s economy was brought to its knees by strikes and power cuts. But Britain is not alone. Here China’s power cuts have crippled industrial production, with European consumers facing higher winter fuel bills as gas prices soar.
Pressure on supply chains, labor shortages and any signs of lowering energy prices would bring relief, especially for battered sterling.
The International Monetary Fund’s opinion on inflation on Wednesday could shed light on whether massive price pressures are taking hold in the 1970s.
– From chips to ships, shortages are driving inflation – what is behind China’s power crisis?
4/ PUMP IT UP
When ministers from OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led allies – meet on Monday to review production policy, they will find oil prices above a three-year high above $80 a barrel and more supplies. to face consumer pressure.
Until recently, sources had expected the group to stick to the current plan agreed in July and boost production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to phase out the 5.8 million bpd cut.
But with prices buoyed by an unplanned US outage and strong demand recovery after the pandemic, that thinking may change: adding more oil was being seen as a scenario, OPEC+ sources said.
The White House, which has expressed concern about the high prices, said it is in dialogue with OPEC here and looking at how to deal with oil prices.
-OPEC+ considers options to release more oil in the market -Source
It’s been quite a ride over the past three months: Chinese markets have suffered their steepest fall ever, energy prices have soared, shipping and commodity costs have soared and yet there are clear signs that the central bank The money taps are starting to close.
The first-quarter shakeout has hit losses for world stocks since COVID-19 began taking its toll early last year, bonds have been a volatile one amid September talks, and safe-haven The dollar is gunning for its strongest year since 2015. .
Analysts predict the end of a “Goldilocks” scenario in the market – when growth and inflation are neither too high nor too low. It is time for investors to be aware of the bears.
Graphic-markets in Q3: Bears in store in China