The Associated Press reported that although getting stuck in a global supply chain could push prices of many items in the market up, the country’s largest retail trade group predicts that holiday sales growth this year will surpass record-breaking numbers.

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The National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Wednesday that it expects sales to grow between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent in November and December, to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion, respectively.

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In 2020, holiday sales increased by 8.2 percent over the previous year, largely due to online shoppers stuck in their homes amid the pandemic. According to the NRF, profit in 2020 and expected profit this year is a sharp increase from the average growth of 4.4 per cent in the last five years.

The group also predicted substantial growth in online shopping and other non-store sales alone, with 11 percent to 15 percent growth for a total of $218.3 billion to $226.2 billion, the AP reported.

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“The holiday shopping season is getting pretty fast,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Consumers are in a very favorable position in the last few months of the year as earnings are rising and household balance sheets have never been stronger.”

For more reporting from the Associated Press, see below.

The forecast considers a variety of indicators, including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, past retail sales and the weather.

Shay also noted during a call with the media on Wednesday that the lifting of US restrictions on international visitors from more than 30 countries early next month should also deal a blow to retailers this holiday season.

According to Deloitte, MastercardSpending Pulse and KPMG, NRF’s good forecast is in line with other forecasts that call for at least 7 percent growth in holiday sales.

Nevertheless, NRF officials acknowledged on the call that there are a lot of headwinds facing consumers who are dealing with the ripple effects of a closed supply chain which means higher prices, less generous discounts and shortage of commodities.

For example, online prices are rising 3 percent over the holidays; In contrast, that number has been down an average of 5 percent over the years, according to the Adobe Digital Economy Index, which tracks more than a trillion visits to US retail sites. Adobe predicts that discounts will be between 5 percent and 25 percent across categories this season, compared to the historical average of 10 percent to 30 percent.

Just like last year, shoppers are shopping early for the holiday season because they can’t find what they want. But Shay said retailers are doing a good job of making sure inventory is on the shelf, although there will be some gaps in some categories.

Still, they’ve seen shoppers learn to adjust by switching to other brands and items if they don’t find their top picks. This happened in the early days of the pandemic when customers were looking for alternative consumer packaged brands when they could not find their top picks.

“Consumers won’t be distracted,” Shay said. “They’ll go shopping for the holidays, and they won’t go home empty-handed.”