The stock market was trying to rebound Thursday, as investors are fretting about the impact of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the economy.
In morning trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 106 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%. The indexes were much lower earlier in the day. If the losses hold, the Dow would fall for the sixth day in a row.
The latest inflation data to hit the wires didn’t help ease investors’ concerns. The producer price index rose 11% year-over-year for April, the Labor Department reported Thursday, above estimates for 10.7% and a tick lower than March’s increase of 11.2%.
The problem for the stock market is that, as companies’ costs rise, they have to raise selling prices, contributing to more consumer inflation—and emboldening the Fed to move faster in lifting interest rates, a threat to economic and earnings growth. Plus, some companies can’t lift prices enough and their profit margins get hit.
The PPI result looked a lot like Wednesday’s consumer price index result, which fell from March, but not by very much. Inflation is sticking around.
“We’ve likely also seen the peak in the rate of change in wholesale prices but price pressures are still pretty intense,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group.
The CPI’s year-over-year gain was 8.3% for April, below the March result, but higher than expected. Markets are having to grapple with the fact that inflation is not declining very quickly, which could force the Federal Reserve to lift short-term interest rates faster than currently expected. The ultimate result? A recession.
Now, “another risk off day is here,” wrote NatAlliance Securities’ Andrew Brenner.
The losses come following inflation-induced declines on Wednesday, which caused all three indexes to sell off, with the Nasdaq down more than 3%.
Overall, the stock market has made one thing clear in the last few trading days: it isnt finished reflecting the economic risks. Now below 4,000, the S&P 500 has fallen beneath key levels at which at had previously found buyers to bring it higher. That opens the door for the index to potentially fall to below 3,700 soon, wrote Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.
Other indicators point to further declines, too, as valuations still look too high. The S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which shows the index’s level divided by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, is just a touch above 35 times, according to 22V Research.
That’s down from a multi-decade peak of almost 39, hit during the pandemic era. But historically, that ratio usually declines much more from a peak to a bottom. The indication is that the decline in the ratio isn’t even halfway over. The reason—fundamentally—is that the risk to the economy points to risk to earnings, and stock prices are still moving lower in order to reflect the potential for lower earnings than currently expected.
As for why tech stocks were holding up the best: bond yields haven’t surged any higher this week. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a pandemic-era closing high of 3.13% on Friday. Since then, it has fallen to 2.89%. The problem for tech stocks this year has been that rising long-dated bond yields make future profits less valuable and many fast-growing tech companies are valued on the basis that the will pump out a chunk of their profits many years in the future. These stocks may be experiencing some relief as the 10-year yield peaks.
Overseas, the pan-European Stoxx 600 declined 1.1%, and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 ended 1.8% lower.
While the selloff has been pronounced in stocks, it has been felt even worse in the digital asset space. Bitcoin,
the largest cryptocurrency, lost 13% over the past 24 hours, trading below $28,000 and down by more than a quarter since a week ago. Smaller cryptos, including Ether and Dogecoin,
saw declines upward of 20%.
Here are six stocks on the move Thursday:
Companies that have tied their fortunes to Bitcoin have been trading wildly. After a 26% plunge on Wednesday—following disappointing earnings and a warning to its customers—crypto exchange Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) was 2.8% lower Thursday. Software group MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has significant Bitcoin holdings, initially fell, then rose 0.1% after a 25% slide in the last session.
Applovin (APP) lowered its estimate for full-year sales, but shares jumped 42% after executives at the app-monetization company raised the possibility of selling the apps business.
Beyond Meat (BYND) has dropped 1% after reporting a larger-than-expected loss.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock fell 25% after the company reported a loss of $1.77 a share, wider than estimates of $1.45 loss per share, on sales of $95 million, below expectations for $133 million.
Walt Disney (DIS) stock fell 1.1% after the company reported a profit of $1.08 a share, missing estimates of $1.19 a share, on sales of $20.27 billion, above expectations for $20.05 billion.
Credit: www.marketwatch.com /