These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023

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Re-election to 35 Senate seats is due in November, but only eight are considered a toss-up, according to real clear politics, According to the research firm Beacon Policy Advisors, three of them are the ones most likely to determine which party controls the Senate.

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In a report released Friday, Beacon predicted “the tipping point race likely to be Georgia, a purple state that is still on the right side of the country by almost three points.”

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The incumbent senator, Democrat Raphael Warnock, defeated Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler by two points in a special runoff election last year, but faced another tough challenge this fall. His new opponent, former NFL player Herschel Walker, is within striking distance.

vote gave Warnock a comfortable lead of anywhere between 3-9-points in July. But in recent weeks, Walker, backed by former President Donald Trump, has gained steam and since August polling has supported him by one to three points.

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The competitiveness of the race has inspired massive fundraising efforts, with Warnock raising more than $60 million and Walker raising more than $20 million. end of June,


Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is running a mediocre election against former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt 1.7 pointsA small lead that the beacon notes is weak for an incumbent.

In a poll conducted in late August by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of the AARP, Democrat Cortez Masto led Republican Laxalt by four points, within the poll’s margin of error. Pollster Tony Fabrizio told Nevada Independent In early September that if the election were held today, he would expect both the state’s Democratic governor and Cortez Masto to be defeated because of their low favorability, a Republican precarious voter turnout and inflation and President Joe Biden-like national conditions. The middle bowed. approval rating.

Beacon noted a demographic factor in the race: “There is more upside to the relatively uncontroversial Laxalt in a state that is moving to the right as a shift of Latino and non-college educated voters to the right.”


Of the three races listed by Beacon, Pennsylvania is the most favorable to the Democrats.

In the race to replace retired Republican Sen. Pat Tomei, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is ahead of Republican challenger Mehmet Oz who is out of the margin of error. The RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted between August 15 and August 28 shows Fetterman leading by 6.5 points.

That lead is less than last month, Beacon notes, plus “[n]American Republicans are making a huge investment in the state and there’s more chatter about Fetterman’s health as he recovers from a stroke.

Other Toss-Ups

While the beacons have identified races in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania determining which party is most likely to win a majority in 2023, there are several other toss-ups to keep an eye on. And as Beacon notes, “If Republicans are winning Arizona or New Hampshire or Democrats are winning Wisconsin or Ohio, we are talking about the size of their majority, not the majority they will have.”

Other races deemed toss-up by RealClearPolitics are Arizona, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. While polling averages show a tight race in each – especially North Carolina And ohio – The RCP does not predict that any of them will change party control (the RCP predicts that the GOP will pick up Nevada and Georgia, giving a 51–49 Republican majority).

Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate have improved significantly in recent weeks five thirty eight That gives the party a 69% chance of winning a majority, up from 56% on August 1—there’s still a lot to be seen in the coming weeks. Some things that could positively affect Republicans, Beacon noted earlier this week, are the national rail strike and projected growth. gas prices

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