ArcelorMittal Stock (NYSE:MT) is down 14% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 as a whole, which was up 3%. If you look at the stock’s change over the past five and ten days, it has fallen (-3% and -6%, respectively) and has underperformed the broader market on both occasions. The recent decline in the stock price was driven by the company’s lack of expectations for Q3 2021 and estimation of declining steel prices everywhere except US ArcelorMittal to have EBITDA of $6.06 billion in Q3 2021, up from $6.15 billion. The market fell short of expectations. Additionally, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research recently said that the rally in steel prices has ended globally, except in the US. It said Chinese steel production, which has been on a downward trend over the past few months , likely to recover in 2022. Additionally, curbs on production are also expected to soften slightly. These factors troubled investors over the past few days, leading to the fall in MT stock.
Now, is MT stock set to fall further or can we expect some recovery? We believe that MT stock has a 51% chance of growth in the next month (21 trading days) based on our Machine Learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years. View our analysis MT stock likely to rise, For additional information on ArcelorMittal’s performance, see the analysis ArcelorMittal Stock,
Twenty One Days: MT-14%, versus the S&P 500 3%; underperforming market
(10% chance event; 51% chance of increase in the next 21 days)
- MT Stock 14% decrease Over the past twenty one trading days (one month), an increase of 3% over the broader market (S&P500)
- A change of -14% or more in twenty one trading days is a 10% probability event, having happened 258 times out of 2516 in the past 10 years.
- Out of these 258 instances, the stock has seen positive momentum on 131 occasions over the next twenty-one trading days.
- it indicates a 51% chance of the stock rising in the next twenty one trading days
Day ten: MT -5.8%, versus S&P 500 1.3%; underperforming market
(23% chance event; 50% chance of increase in the next 10 days)
- MT Stock 5.8% decrease In the last ten trading days (two weeks), a 1.3% increase compared to the broader market (S&P 500)
- A change of -5.8% or more in ten trading days is a rare event with a 23% probability, having happened 580 times out of 2516 in the past 10 years.
- Out of these 580 cases, the stock has seen positive momentum on 291 occasions in the next ten trading days
- it indicates a 50% chance of the stock rising in the next ten trading days
Day Five: MT -3.2%, versus the S&P 500 0.3%; underperforming market
(30% chance event; 49% chance of increase over the next five days)
- MT Stock 3.2% decrease In the five-day trading period ending 11/24/2021, the broader market (S&P500) increased by 0.3%
- A change of -3.2% or more in five trading days (one week) is a rare event with a 30% probability, having occurred 748 out of 2515 times in the past ten years.
- Out of these 748 cases, the stock has seen positive momentum on 365 occasions over the next five trading days
- it indicates a 49% chance of the stock rising in the next five trading days
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Returns Nov’21 MTD  YTD  2017-21 
MT Return -16% 22% 27%
S&P 500 Returns 1% 22% 105%
Trefis MS Portfolio Returns -3% 46% 297%
 Month-to-date and Year-to-date as of 11/29/2021
 Cumulative Total Return since 2017
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