What Holliday Shopping Stats So Far Might Tell Us About The Economy

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‘Time for a large number of consumers detailing details’ to buy a gift. This year, that also includes uncertainty, inflation and supply chain issues. So far, the results haven’t been crushing by any means for retailers and the overall economy (which, remember, is about 68% of consumer spending). But they are not that exciting either.

One caveat: The data is provided by companies that provide systems and information for retail supply chain or marketing management. The picture that colors the presentations and beliefs.

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First, Sensormatic Solutions, part of Johnson Controls
JCI
, which itself is big in technologies for buildings, energy, retail, and some other sectors. Its Initial data on in-store purchases Black Friday suggested an increase of 47.5% in 2020, which sounds good unless you remember that during tough times in the pandemic, not many people were excited about being in a rush.

Sensormatic also has data comparing the previous “normal” year 2021 to 2019. Since then the movement of shopkeepers was down by 28.3%. Visits to stores on Thanksgiving Day were down 90.4% from 2019. Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. But, even if no one in the business is saying no, it’s troubling many in retail who are looking for a regular pattern for the holidays.

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Tracks online shopping and spending on Thanksgiving Day was expected to range between $5.1 billion and $5.4 billion, with the final coming in on the low end. Similarly, Black Friday, during which people spent $8.9 billion, was also at the low end of the projected range and interestingly, slightly lower than 2020.

both numbers are above 2019, with Black Friday at $7.4 billion and Thanksgiving Day, $4.2 billion.

A couple of possibilities speak for both the economy and many, though obviously not all, consumers are concerned about being in a rush, especially with the news of the Covid Omron edition. An explicit analysis has to factor in inflation.

Costs are rising, so is it any wonder that results may fall at the bottom of estimates, especially when the practice of forecasting is to create an informational circus that can make chewing more comfortable? Using dollars as the measure, the number now means a smaller quantity may be consumed than it once was. With the official measure of inflation, the consumer price index, running 6.9% since October 2020, perhaps the number is lower by 6.9% at $5.1 billion, or the same as $4.74 billion. Then add another 1.2% of inflation in 2020, so now the total is 8.1%. That makes $5.1 billion more like $4.68 billion, very close to 2019, with a lot of growth due to inflation and not organic expansion.

Another possibility is that many people are still financially hurt by the pandemic crash. The worlds of finance and media often focus on the average or average. If they appear to be in acceptable shape, the forecast is a strong economy.

Except, averages are usually top-weighted, meaning that the luck of the financially fortunate at the top of the socioeconomic mountain is so great that they pull the results up. Describe economy as average and you almost always put lipstick on a wicked boar. Use the median instead and people very easily forget that half the population does worse and half does better.

Statistics can be powerful and useful, but still limiting if people do not pay attention to the distribution – the picture of fate, and the tricks of the human race, allocating good and not-so-good results among all.

Millions of people have to contend with rents that grow faster than their income. at the end of september, Consumers paid 10.5% more Compared to the year before to obtain meat, poultry, fish and eggs. Living only for a large part of the country is expensive.

Holiday spending tracking ignores that issue. Granted, business affects jobs that have an impact on everyone. But public allure is another distraction from providing a comprehensive view of the economy. And it says a lot about where we are, financially and morally.

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