Enphase Energy Inc. stock (NASDAQ:ENPH) is down 30% over the past month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was virtually unchanged over the period. If you look at the turnaround in the last five and ten days, the stock has given returns of -16% and -20% respectively, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. Enphase reported mixed Q3 ’21 earnings in October, with revenue rising sharply from $178 million in Q3 ’20 to $351 million in Q3 ’21. However, a significant increase in COGS and operating expenses pulled operating income from $52 million to $37 million in the period. With a 2x increase in interest expense and a largely unchanged effective tax rate, EPS fell to $0.16 in Q3 ’21 from $0.31 in Q3 ’20. Additionally, Enphase is a high-growth, capital-intensive solar company, and the looming threat of rising interest rates had a lot to do with the stock’s decline over the past month.
Now, is Enphase Energy’s stock set to continue its underperformance or can we expect a rally? We believe that Enphase stock has a strong 72% chance of growth in the next month (21 trading days) based on our Machine Learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years. View our analysis ENPH stock likely to rise, For additional details on ENPH’s historical returns and peer comparison, see Enphase Energy Stock Returns, Additionally, for details about ENPH revenue and peer comparison, see Enphase Energy Revenue Comparison,
Twenty One Days: ENPH -30%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; underperforming market
(5% chance event; 72% chance of increase in the next 21 days)
- ENPH Stock dropped 30% Over the past twenty one trading days (one month), a marginal decline of 0.8% compared to the broader market (S&P500)
- A change of -30% or more in twenty one business days is a 5% probability event, having happened 132 times out of 2440 in the past ten years.
- Out of these 132 instances, the stock has seen positive momentum on 95 occasions over the next twenty-one trading days.
- it indicates a 72% chance of the stock rising in the next twenty one trading days
Day ten: ENPH -20%, versus the S&P500 -2%; underperforming market
(8% chance event; 59% increase chance over the next 10 days)
- ENPH Stock dropped 20% In the last ten trading days (two weeks), a decline of 2% compared to the broader market (S&P500)
- A change of -20% or more in ten trading days is an 8% probability event, having occurred 195 times out of 2451 in the past ten years.
- Out of these 195 examples, the stock has seen positive momentum on 116 occasions over the next ten trading days.
- it indicates a 59% chance of the stock rising in the next ten trading days
Day five: ENPH -16%, versus the S&P500 -2.2%; underperforming market
(6% chance event; 47% increase chance over the next five days)
- ENPH Stock dropped 16% in the five-day trading period ended 1/10/2022, compared to a decline of 2.2% against the broader market (S&P500)
- A change of -16% or more in five trading days (one week) is a 6% probability event, having occurred only 141 times out of 2456 in the past ten years.
- Out of these 141 cases, the stock has seen positive momentum on 66 occasions over the next five trading days
- it indicates a 47% chance of the stock rising in the next five trading days
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