share price of AlbemarleLtd., a chemicals company that is one of the world’s largest producers of lithium, a key raw material for electric vehicle batteries, has seen its stock fall nearly 10% in the past month (21 trading days). This compares to the S&P 500 which is down about 11% over the same period. Now Albemarle’s business has been doing really well lately. Lithium prices have risen, with the spot prices of lithium carbonate rising nearly 70%, and nearly 4x over the previous year, driven by strong demand for EVs. The company also forecast windfall gains for the year, guiding adjusted earnings of between $9.25 and $12.25 per share for this year, up from just $4 last year. However, concerns about the macroeconomic outlook seem to be weighing the stock down slightly. With the rise in US inflation, the Federal Reserve has taken a more aggressive route to hike rates, which, in turn, is expected to affect US GDP growth. The recent drop comes amid concerns of an imminent US recession that could affect lithium prices as well.
However, now that ALB stock has seen a decline of about 11% over the past month, will it continue its downward trend in the near term, or is a rally imminent? According to historical performance, there is ALB stock likely to rise 63% in next month, out of 272 cases Over the past ten years ALB stock has seen a decline of 10% or more in twenty one days, 170 of them ALB stock is rising as a result of one month later (twenty one trading days). This historical pattern represents 170 out of 272, or Nearly 63% chance of ALB stock rising in the coming month, indicating a positive near-term outlook for the stock. View our analysis Albemarle Stock Chance of a Rise for more information.
While ALB stock has declined recently, many of its counterparts in the sector still look alike. Albemarle. better bet than, see how albemarle piers Fare on metrics that matter. You’ll find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries here. peer comparison,
Calculation of ‘probability of occurrence’ and ‘probability of growth’ using data of last ten years
- After rising -10% or more in five days, the stock rose on a 58% chance over the next five days.
- After rising -15% or more in ten days, the stock rose on 47% of the occasions over the next ten days
- After rising -10% or more over a twenty-one day period, the stock rose on 63% opportunities over the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests that the ALB stock may see some upside gains in the near term.
Stock prices across sectors have fallen sharply in recent months and we are now in a bear market for the first time since March 2020, when the COVID-19 outbreak triggered a market crash. We capture key trends in the Dow during and after major market crashes in our interactive dashboard analysis.market crash comparison,
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