This piece was written a day ago attempted murder The game against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina radically changed the political arena, but it remained relevant to the point where it allows the reader to abstract itself from the immediate to see the bigger picture.
One curious thing about trying to project the future is that conditions are constantly changing. I believe that what will happen today in 2023 could be very different from what I believe in a day, a week or a month. In this context, the weight of the charge in the corruption trial against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is known asstreet’ has thrown the entire socio-political ecosystem into flux, giving the Vice President a centrality that he may not have even expected. An expert in political power issues, Fernández de Kirchner took full advantage of the opportunity, guarding the entire and fairly diverse pan-Peronist front, which has Frente de Todos behind her as she flirts with a potential 2023 presidential candidacy. .
Everything is connected, of course. As explained several times in this column, the chances of Christina going to jail any time soon are extremely slim. The tribunal has not even heard the defendants’ case, after which they must arrive at a sentence that can be appealed to the High Court. Ultimately the Supreme Court has to decide and we are talking at least 2025. Whatever it decides to do, it will trigger a series of actions in the political arena that could set a very different stage for 2023 than previously expected. This is the lens under which this entire circus must be analyzed.
Before prosecutor Diego Luciani made his charge against CFK, the conventional wisdom was that both he and Mauricio Macri would be forced to sit in the presidential election given the prohibitively negative figures in opinion polls. President Alberto Fernandez, Cristina’s son Maximo Kirchner, Buenos Aires governor Axel Kisilof and strongman Sergio Massa were all in the same boat. Alberto dreamed of re-election if the economy improved, but Massa’s ascension into a leading role as “super” economy minister put the nail in the coffin. In Massa’s case, his ambition has taken him to the hottest seat in the house with the hope that it can take him to Casa Rosada next year or position him favorable for 2027. At 50, he is still young enough to run for the presidency. Kissilof will have a tough run for re-election, but can use Peronists’ “domestic advantage” conurbano To take a hard win out of the bag. He would be joined by Fernández de Kirchner on the campaign trail, as he hoped to run for a Senate seat in the country’s largest province, while he would need to find a place for Maximo in Buenos Aires or Santa Cruz.
Can Christina dream up Casa Rosada instead of Senate next year? In a recent survey conducted by Opinia political consultancy firm, CFK will easily win the PASO primaries. When asked who would be voted in the presidential election, Fernández de Kirchner would get 13 percent of the vote, compared with six percent for Alberto and five percent for Massa. Overall, the Frente de Todos coalition would win 28 percent of the vote, just two points behind Juntos por el Cambio. Interestingly, Macri and PRO party leader Patricia Bulrich will take eight per cent each, while Buenos Aires City Mayor Horacio Rodriguez Larrata will come in at six per cent. In the end, the most “voted” candidate would be liberal economist Javier Milli, with 18 percent. A game-changing 14 percent remained undecided. When the question changes from individuals to political parties (or coalitions in this case), Frente de Todos has a voting intent of 42 percent, compared to 52 percent for Juntos por el Cambio.
The previous scenario suggested a genuine disintegration of the ruling coalition, but for ‘Christina 2023’ it needs to remain united. Its mirror image is Macri, who is evaluating his chances as he increases his public exposure. He has pumped up the figures of Bulrich, who had served as a counterweight to Rodriguez Laretta, and who could appeal to the right-wing to consider changing his vote from the Miley-Aspert camp if it was to defeat the Peronists. was functional enough. Bulrich knows that at 66 years old, this is his last real chance, and he is still one of the only politicians to have positive figures in opinion polls. Even Rodriguez Laretta has gotten into negative territory in some surveys. If McCree wants to compete, Bullerick will step aside, meaning the city mayor will have to fight a war on two fronts. Those close to Rodriguez Laretta are confident that he can keep the alliance together and move on to the PASO primary, but they are not counting on McCree to throw his hat in the ring. He believes this is just an attempt to gain some centrality and relevance once Rodriguez Laretta finds his way into the mid-2021s. Former First Lady Juliana Avada won’t be around for another round, reassuring herself to say what she wants to believe.
The return of former presidents has thrown Alberto Fernandez into obsolescence, while helping Frente de Todos push the economic situation into the background for a while. Massive inflation could reach 100 percent this year, and Massa’s one-month tenure in the economy ministry has come with much buzz but little in terms of concrete action. The “super minister” promised that he would raise $5 billion in reserves to fill the Central Bank’s vacant treasury. Hemade made the rounds of the Empire seat a few weeks ago, where he met with Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund. “Argentina still lacks a comprehensive policy plan under Massa,” Fitch Ratings says, “fiscal metrics are screwing up the trap of accounting maneuvers, and the cap on Treasury’s central bank funding is not a strong monetary anchor.” Stocks are falling despite broadly supportive terms of trade, indicating that unresolved domestic issues are to blame. Even though, the IMF’s own projections show Argentina is four percent this year, up from 10.4 percent last year. will grow, the second largest of South America’s largest economies after Colombia (6.3 percent). While the United States is expected to slow to one percent in 2023, Argentina will gain three percent if it continues at this average pace. Massa may have been lucky that he was in the right place at the right time.
Returning to former presidents, Mauricio and Cristina are playing their cards before 2023. They have changed the political landscape andsuper classic“: Macri-Kirchner face-to-face. I doubt it, but what I think today may soon change.
Credit: www.forbes.com /